Viola is going to get the Oscar for the wrong movie
Don't get me wrong I love her and think she's an astounding actress.
HOWEVER
her big scene in this film (the tears) is nothing we haven't seen before from her, in fact she performed a similar scene with much more electricity in just 5 minutes in doubt. When I saw her in that movie, she SURPRISED me. Seeing her here in Fences, I can regocnize the talent but wouldn't say that's the female performance of the year.
If I was voting I would much rather vote for Michelle Williams, who is a continually versatile actress and did something new for her in just a few short scenes in Manchester.