Denzel Washington unexpectedly takes Best Actor, while Viola Davis wins Best Supporting Actress. Will Denzel's win change anything? I'm thinking probably not. He's built up no momentum and wasn't even nominated for the BAFTA, so I'm thinking this is still Affleck's to lose.
http://www.thebluspot.com/single-post/2017/01/29/The-Winners-of-the-23rd-Annual-Screen-Actors-Guild-Awards
The momentum for Casey Affleck and Manchester by the Sea is starting to slip. The film had 4 SAG nominations (more than any film) and didn't win anything. Also, the speeches he has given at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice weren't very impressive (that's also hurting him). He hasn't done much campaigning either, he doesn't like campaigning and when he does, he doesn't come off as well. Plus, the sexual harassment lawsuit against him from 2010 (from two women) has resurfaced again, it probability won't derail him, but it doesn't help him either (ask Nate Parker from The Birth of a Nation). If he wants to win, he needs to be out there more campaigning and stop riding the coattails of Matt Damon and his brother!
Denzel Washington has never been nominated for a BAFTA and still won 2 Oscars! This was his first SAG win and him winning has given him much needed new momentum, but he just needs to close the deal! He has been campaigning, but not heavily enough. This win will help renew that! Also majority members in the SAG-AFTRA are also members of the actors branch in the Academy and that could help him more!
The Best Actor race is a real race now between Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington! Casey Affleck needed to win SAG (to lock up his Oscar) and this lost has stopped his momentum (at the moment) and he needs to win BAFTA (to get some momentum back)! The momentum for Denzel Washington has now shifted in his favor!
I agree with a lot of SibTower1987's post. The voter pool for the Academy awards is basically the same as the SAG awards without the TV portion. So, in modern times, the actors who won the SAG award usually went on to win an Oscar. Critics select GG winners and BAFTA's diversity of voters is not as large as the AA's, if it exists at all.
However, the AA's love to surprise everyone and be original so Ryan Gosling should campaign as much or more than Denzel W. & Casey A. Anything is possible but at the moment Denzel and Casey are the front-runners.
I wouldn't say her has lost momentum. I've been hearing that Washington has been right on his heals for months now and after seeing the performance, plus the SAG win, I can honestly see them going either way here. My preference would be Washington though, as it's a performance that just feels larger than life and terribly powerful when you watch him where Affleck always felt more subdued. I would be happy with either though.
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Review of the film here-https://youtu.be/IAkFp11Hwq4