It would make sense for the film to have a better domestic/foreign split than the original, since there is expansion overseas, and the reception probably won't hurt it as much overseas. I was just giving a reference point to how poor the domestic tracking seems to be.
I didn't expect to see this thread again. Obviously I and many other people were very wrong abut this film. It didn't just do less business than the first film as we are expected, it out right bombed. The biggest bomb of the summer so far.
Who would expect a sequel to a billion film would far so hard.
No ones expecting this to have the same level of success as the first. If it does end up with jusr 180 million domestic it won't be considered "awful". Disney's got a lot of bigger fish this year that are taking priority. Hence their releasing this same weekend as X-Men
Maybe you're right. I guess I was expecting it to be bigger since Alice was on a lot of people's top 10 lists at the beginning of the year. With these numbers, even if it does make half a billion overseas, it would only have $680 million. That isn't really enough to scrape into the top 10.
As I look through the predictions different publications and users have made for Alice, this doesn't actually seem that troubling after all.
I really disliked the first one, and I think I was paranoid that the next one was going to be as big as the X-Men and stuff.
Idiots. If they had moved the film up just one week forward it wouldn't have to deal with Apocalypse and they could probably open number 1.
If they moved it up one weekend they would be competing against the 3rd weekend of one of their own films Civil War. If they pushed it back one weekend it would only have two weekends to make money before Finding Dory opens which is another Disney film. They don't want their films to compete against each other. There was no other slot open. In the summer movie season there are no weekends available where something big isn't opening.
As it is Jungle Book only has three weekend to make money before Civil War opens. Jungle Book will be competing against another one of their films this weekend Zootopia for the family audience in the US and overseas despite Zootopia having been in theaters for 6 weeks already. That film has had incredible legs and is still doing well domestically and overseas.
I expect Alice to make more money overseas than X-Men anyway. Overseas audiences are not as enamored with Super Heroes as the US and Alice in Wonderland is a book that is known the world ever.
Overseas audiences are not as enamored with Super Heroes as the US
While I agree with the rest of your analysis, I think you're very wrong here.
Superhero movies are routinely among the most overseas dependent films of the year. Usually taking in 2/3 of their gross from outside the US. Certainly on the far end among movies that get a fair release in both territories. Not as far as some, but a lot better than average.
That's still a fine number when you consider that there is more competition in May than in early March and six years have passed since the first film. Not fantastic, though, but fine. As far as quality is concerned, I originally thought this looked entertaining, but the more marketing materials get released, the more bland and dull it looks. I might just wait to rent it.