I think I could handle winning the lottery too, just like everyone else, but the facts suggest that nearly all of us are wrong. Remember, it's not just about managing the money, it has a big effect on your family, friends, and coworkers. In short, your entire support network. These people often want some of your windfall, and it ruins these relationships regardless of whether you give it to them.
As for ripple effects of using a time machine, those ripples don't need to be large at all. Those lottery devices that blow the balls around with air are exquisitely sensitive to initial conditions. It's the butterfly effect on a desktop. If someone asked me to design a time-machine-proof lottery machine, I don't think I could do better than that.
reply
share
Strazdamonas
10 years ago
when it comes to family and friends, well, im already better off than my familty, so that would be nothing new. as far as friends go, if getting richer ruins the friendship they werent good friends to begin with. i can find others.
Most lotteries are computerized now, computers select random numbers, which arent actually truly random (there is no true random in computers) but most likely using standard random algorythm based on time calculator salted with extra factors. one actually could design an algorythm to guess the numbers if he knew the exact moment computer rolls them, but in practice its as likely as a meteorite destroying earth tomorrow. and even then there wouldn't really be any ripples to speak off.
I buy a lottery ticket with whatever numbers. I see the winning numbers. i go back and change the numbers i chose to winning ones. there is no real "Effect" on the time up to the point of results, in which case me winning has an effect on the world. up until then the effects are so minimal as to be ignored within a time as short as 1 day.
---------------------------------------------
Applied Science? All science is applied. Eventually.
reply
share
melinda2001
10 years ago
If your wealth is suddenly a million times that of all your friends, that will be such a huge elephant in the room that your easy relationships will no longer exist. You'll go through the motions for a while but it will never again be like it was no matter what you do.
As for lottery mechanics, it appears that you are not correct about them using software. As a software developer myself, I would be extremely suspicious of such a lottery. Here's a link to the description of the Mega Millions lottery in the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mega_Millions#How_the_drawings_are_held It's much like the one with balls blown with air. It's difficult to game, and a basic design that I could trust, with sufficient verification of course. It's also exquisitely sensitive to initial conditions. So sensitive, that if you were to go back in time to yesterday, and go through the exact same actions you did whey buying your losing ticket, but this time bought the winning numbers, you'd still affect the system because your heart would be beating faster, the words you spoke or buttons you pressed and other small differences would affect the world enough to easily alter the behavior of the balls being mixed in the machine. This is what chaos theory of dynamical systems tells us.
reply
share
Strazdamonas
10 years ago
While obviuosly unavoidable for some friends, id very much prefer to keep the wealth semi-secret. i am not a kind of person that would go around throwing money left and right and as such i find no need to tell others how wealthy i would be. Sure, maybe some friends would change, but new friends is always a possibility.
Thats how mega millions lottery is held. most of lotteries around here do in fact use computer random number generation method. And yes, there are concerns about cheating but nothing was found so far.
Yeah, i still dont buy that effect as the machine is pretty much isolated from my heatbeat. the whole butterfly wings causing hurricanes is nonsense and even the father of Chaos theory says so.
---------------------------------------------
Applied Science? All science is applied. Eventually.
reply
share
melinda2001
10 years ago
Got a reference for Lorenz thinking the the butterfly effect is nonsense? Even if initial perturbations get smoothed over in weather systems, that wouldn't apply to lottery machines which are designed specifically to magnify randomizing effects. These should be affected by your heartbeat and all other unisolated differences in the world.
reply
share
Strazdamonas
10 years ago
here, his own paper http://eaps4.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/Butterfly_1972.pdf
---------------------------------------------
Applied Science? All science is applied. Eventually.
reply
share
melinda2001
10 years ago
Great reference, and a good read. Unfortunately for you it doesn't support your conclusion that Lorenz felt the butterfly effect is nonsense. At best, he clearly says "We can't tell yet". Here is the key sentence from his conclusion:
"We must therefore leave our original question unanswered for a few more years,
IE whether the flap of a butterfly's wing in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas
even while affirming our faith in the instability of the atmosphere."
Meaning his faith in the answer being "yes".
Thanks for digging up the reference. That's way better than what so many of the Bozos on these boards are willing or able to do.
reply
share
Strazdamonas
10 years ago
I never said that the butterfly effect is nonsense. i said that a butterfly causing a huricane is nonsense and in his paper he claims that it is a gross exagaration to illustrate the effect and not realistic case. The question was whether chaos theory is real or not (turned out to be real).
Yeah, most people do not provide sources for their claims. But i cant really blame them, most people arent that invested in random internet discussion with strangers.
---------------------------------------------
Applied Science? All science is applied. Eventually.
reply
share
melinda2001
10 years ago
You said
the whole butterfly wings causing hurricanes is nonsense
which is pretty much the definition of the effect, but it's fine that you want to backpedal. It's better to do that than level personal attacks which is what most of those random strangers would have done by this point.
reply
share