Does this have a good shot at winning Best Documentary?
It's hard to know with more obscure categories what the front-runners are. Does anyone know if there's a consensus, or even an educated guess?
shareI'm not sure how educated guesses can be for any Academy award. It's not a scientific process by any means. It just comes down to the particular tastes of the members, the particular films they saw, and what they mark.
All that said, there's been a lot of praise for this film, so, sure there's likely a decent chance.
Have to disagree. Every year, a few of the major categories are considered near-locks. Anne Hathaway will almost definitely win for Les Miz, and DDL for Lincoln. But Best Documentary is rarely a huge headliner, although someone who's in the biz, or even someone who's been able to see all or most of the nominees, might have a good idea.
shareDisagree with what part?
I think what you are saying is that popular movies tend to draw winners. That makes sense. Again, it's based on the movies the voters see (which probably coincides with which movies were popular).
But that's a bit of a crapshoot when it comes to documentaries. Rarely do documentaries achieve widespread popularity (aside form perhaps Michael Moore or Ken Burns).
With the educated guess part. Anne Hathaway and DDL have been cleaning up with all the other awards, and it's a virtual certainty they'll win the Oscars too.
shareI think it will, yes.
It's funny that people say this category is hard to predict. I would say it's quite often the category with the most glaring omissions in terms of nominees (and just as often, those omissions are politically-based), but there is nearly always a clear frontrunner.
This is the movie that is connecting with people, and the one that is most accessible. It will win. Mark my word!
If I'm wrong, I will return here and eat crow. Promise. Just don't blame me for any lost money, okay?
I think I agree with both of you. You are right, one can make an educated guess on the main categories with fairly decent accuracy.
And yes, it's true that just like the rest of the films, it's likely the most accessible documentary that will pick up the awards.
For better or worse, I guess that's mostly what the Academy awards are in a way...voting for what films were most accessible to the voting base.
Sometimes they are, but not always. Films like "No Country for Old Men", "Crash" or even "The Hurt Locker" weren't THE most accessible - or successful - films for their years by a long shot, yet they won. I think an argument can be made that the Oscars have been trending less accessible over the years, in fact. There is this idea that the Academy only honors things that are epic or traditional, but I don't believe that theory bears itself out if you really pore over the data. I think one can draw some conclusions, however, such as that with few exceptions, certain genres like comedy or horror are rarely honored. That then begs the question: are their omissions justified? That could certainly be true as well.
There is a huge momentum factor, however. Films - for a variety of reasons - gain popular support. I think the momentum of this film is its accessibility, likability, etc. which is connecting more than the others. So, I guess what I'm saying is that "accessibility" may not be what gives other films their momentum, but in this case, it is. It's just a really well-told, straight-forward story. Other documentaries aren't even structured that way (for instance, I wouldn't cal the excellent "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room" accessible).
There is also the probable idea that if this film wins for Best Documentary Feature, then this would cap off Rodriguez's rise from unjust obscurity to the height of popular acclaim as he joins the directors on stage to accept the Oscar.
The Academy is often very sentimental in its voting and the chance to create a heartwarming scene like that would be too much to resist.
It just won the BAFTA for Best Documentary.
You must be the change you seek in the world. -- Gandhi
Yes, sentimental is a good word. These are people who make movies, after all! Sentiment is great drama.
shareThat factor, by itself, is enough to convince me that this will win the Oscar.
share