MovieChat Forums > Black Panther (2018) Discussion > How much frontloading is going on here?

How much frontloading is going on here?


If we look at these preview numbers we see that they are excellent but still behind many films that would go on to top the weekend out at 140...150...160 million and yet so many see this as hitting 170...180...even 200(!) million.

Why? Where is the precedent for that? If we are looking at historical precedent this will fall well below 150 million. I still peg it under 125 million for the 3-day.

Make fun all you want...we will patiently wait for today's matinee numbers.

Like one analyst said..."We are in for a bumpy weekend for predictions." LOL...he got that right but the "bumps" may not be what many were expecting.

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You definitely aren't good at this prediction thing. Maybe you should try knitting, idk.

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[deleted]

Just wait until the openings in Kenya and Zimbabwe. It's being forecast that from these two countries, the movie will easily earn over two billion locusts in the first week alone!

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Bump

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lol Just found something pretty funny.....I think Queen is also on comicboomovie.com under the name "Ruthless"

lol Just reading through some comments, and theres a poster over there named Ruthless who is just getting brutally ripped apart exactly like Queen does on here....but the Stunner here is, "Ruthless's" predictions and posting is identical to Queens....heres some comments...

[About Black Panther]

Ruthless - 12/23/2017, 5:18 PM

People are throwing around 120 and 130. People are seriously thinking this could make more than Thor + Hulk and a Spider-Man movie with RDJ? Yikes. I personally doubt this makes more than Doctor Strange which had an A-lister in the lead role and a better release month.


Ruthless - 1/28/2018, 3:27 PM

ForMeWasTuesday - Yeah. A lot of fanboys are over predicting it. $250 million domestically should be the goal if it’s lucky.



Ruthless - 2/12/2018, 2:52 PM

It would appear that a LOT of people are setting themselves up for disappointment. Marvel movies always get overpredicted ever since Ultron. Early tracking had BP at $85-90 million for the opening. I’ll be generous and say $95 million but I highly doubt it reaches $100 million based on experience and history of the box office. We’ll see next week but I warned ya.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^
does this not sound exactly like queen>

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Look for the "Warner and Universal must be putting a smile in their face" thread. It was deleted here by the moderator, but it was a funny one.

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bump

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A thread for posterity....

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What does "Front-Loading" or "Front-Loaded" mean? Is it a good thing or a bad thing? Is it something that the Movie Studio does or the Distributor does to a film?

Front-loaded movies, as measured by the percentage of the total domestic box office for a film that was generated during the opening weekend. The higher the percentage, the more front-loaded the film.
Is there an official % that determines that a movie is "Front-Loaded"?

BP has been out 12 days is it okay to measure the "Front-Loaded"-ness of BP? As of Monday BP's % is 202/411 or ~ 49%. Is that good or bad at this point?

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Movies with the most front-loaded opening weekend, as measured by the percentage of the (3-day) opening weekend at the domestic box office that was earned on Friday. The higher the percentage, the more front-loaded the film. For this chart we consider movies that were released on a Friday, and that opened in at least 1,000 theaters.
***

This is a definition that I found from the site "The Numbers": https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/legs/front-loaded-opening-weekend

Can a movie be both Front-Loaded and have Legs at the same time?

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Here I put the current daily numbers into Excel and made a graph
I think the tendency is revealing.
https://s10.postimg.org/nnocvh2ax/BP_vs_A_vs_AAo_U.jpg
(BP= Black Panther, A= Avengers, A AoU= Avengers: Age of Ultron.)
Edit: I added the BP-A but, it shows a continuing increase in BP's advantage over A, although it did get a boost on the fourth day in particular, it has not lost steam since that day, the difference has even increased slightly!
March 16 Updated !

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Wow, you must be some kind of genius, this movie is so frontloaded... As frontloaded as you can find... Ha, ha, ha...

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A good dose of comedy for the users of this forum...

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The comedy of this is that BP made $1.1b in 29 days, thats called front loading. TLJ made all its money in just 45 days, which is also front loaded. A movie that is not front loaded is Jumanji. Its got real legs.

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29 days is immaterial. Front loading is a term for a movie that generates the bulk of its revenue in its opening weekend. Whatever it makes in the first 3 days, as compared to what it makes in total for its entire run.

Front loaded films make half or more of their money in the opening weekend, and typically fall into two categories:

1. films that have a specific audience, most of whom are eager to see the movie as soon as its out, but have little appeal to more general audiences

2. films that have huge word of mouth leading up to their opening, but audience/critical response to the opening is so negative that audiences stay away in the future

Black Panther, and The Last Jedi for that matter, fit none of the requirements to be considered front loaded films.

Jumanji's box office, on the other hand, is the beneficiary of coming out during a time when no big movies were being released to compete with it. For a couple months, it was the only blockbuster-type movie playing that wasn't The Last Jedi, and it reaped the benefits of that quirk of scheduling. Everyone who'd seen Jedi and wanted to see a "big" movie had no other choice, except for those who opted to see Jedi multiple times.

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The comedy of this is that BP made $1.1b in 29 days, thats called front loading. TLJ made all its money in just 45 days, which is also front loaded. A movie that is not front loaded is Jumanji. Its got real legs.

^^^

nope...

"Frontloaded" is box office terms is used to describe a Film that Opens Big and then falls off quick or rapidly

thats is how that box office community has always defined Frontloaded...If you define it differently thats fine your entitled to your own Opinion, but Just know your Opinion is not shared by the Majority

a perfect example of being FrontLoaded is....BvS

BvS had an Opening Weekend of 166 Million and a total domestic gross of 330 M....Meaning BvS made more than 50% of its domestic gross on OW, thats Frontloaded

BvS had a 424 Million dollar GLOBAL opening Weekend, BvS total WW gross was 870 M...Meaning BvS made almost 50% on its entire gross on its Opening weekend...

BvS in every way possible started off HUGE and Collapsed..this is the definition of frontloaded

Black doesnt even remotely fit the criteria for "frontloaded"

Black Panther opened with 201 M and Will end its domestic run over 650 M, Meaning BP has had a PLUS X3 Multiplier, This is Great, It means Black Panther Opened HUGE and NEVER Fell off, it continued to have Great Holds

Black Panther had A GLOBAL debut of 361 M....and Will finish over 1.2 B...Meaning Black Panther once again had a +X3 Multiplier, Meaning Black Panther has Continues Strong through out its entire run

to say Black Panther is frontloaded, means you are ignoring all facts, that is the only way you can possible say Black Panther is Frontloaded

Now if you want to point out BP hasnt had ALL TIME great legs like Jumanji, thats accurate, Jumanji has proven to be one of the most "Leggy" films of all time

there are very few movies in history to have legs like Jumanji.

but Black Panther does not in any way fit the universally recognized term for "Frontloaded"....every single box office stat for BP PROVES unequivocally BP has had Great Legs, Great Holds and does not in any way fit the criteria that the box office community goes by for "frontloaded"

If you truly believe BP is frontloaded...then unfortunately that is a YOU PROBLEM

you simply have the wrong criteria for frontloaded, You are going by a standards the Majority does not, has not and Will never go by.

although I must admit, I dont even think you really believe BP is frontloaded, its so absurd I dont think anyone could really believe that...I suspect your just angry and trolling


now I've just hit you with an Avalanche of indisputable facts....take some time, Let them sink in, and then proceed with caution...

at this point you can only make yourself look worse...

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