Considering the weak field of best Actor nominees this year, Demián Bichir has the best shot. Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy would be the only one that could take it away from him, but I think his chances are pretty darn good.
shareYou clearly don't follow the Oscar race, Bichir and Oldman are respectably in the 4th and 5th positions. The Oscar is between Dujardin and Clooney who have been winning all the important precursor awards.
All Bichir has other than the Oscar nom is a Screen actors guild (SAG) nom and Oldman only has a British Academy (BAFTA) nom. The Broadcast film critics and Golden Globes ignored Bichir and Oldman (who also missed SAG); so they really have no chance at winning.
I wish Demián Bichir would have won the Oscar. You could see the pain in his eyes with all of his problems with his son & his life. It was so sad & heartbreaking & I was very disappointed he didn't win.