She lacked the tools to observe the tilt.
That's not correct. The tilt can be observed by the changing position of the sun in the sky and gradual variations in the amount of daylight as seasons progress. In fact the earth's tilt was approximated hundreds of years before Hypatia's time. As for the seasons, it's not that hard to imagine that periods with less than half a day of daylight would be colder than periods with more than half a day of daylight. The relationship between the earth's tilt and the sun are actually easier to grasp and (just as importantly) observe than the notion of an elliptical orbit.
The biggest obstacle preventing a late 4th/early 5th century astronomer from recognizing the earth's or any other planet's orbit as elliptical (not circular) wasn't the complexity of the idea, it was the precision of the measurements available. Kepler had more precise instruments available to him than Hypatia, hence he was able to see that a circle, whether it was centered on the sun or centered on the earth with the planets following various "eccentricities", did not fit the available evidence as well as an ellipse. In particular, Mars just didn't quite seem to fit a circular orbit and that is what led Kepler to describe the orbits of the planets as elliptical (Mars has one of the most eccentric orbits of any planet, making it one of the easiest to observe the eccentricity) And not too long (relative to the gap between Hypatia and Kepler) after Kepler, Newton was able to come along and provide us with a mathematical model to explain (to the extent he could, given the data available) the interaction between masses.
So, it is a bit of a hard sell to claim that Hypatia would have reasonably described the motion of the planets as elliptical (because her instruments would have lacked the precision of Kepler's) and doubly hard to believe that, had she actually come to such a conclusion, she would then go on to theorize that this would explain the seasons because the relationship between the earth's tilt and the seasons was actually much more readily observed at the time than the "not quite circular" orbits of the earth around the sun.
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