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TVByTheNumbers analyzes the CW's ratings: Supernatural is "working"

posted 8 years ago by Virile Manifestation of the Divine (1020)
7 replies | jump to latest

We've been talking about Supernatural's ratings quite a bit on the board.

Many of us have issues with the current direction of the show and are hoping something will be done to rectify things in season 13.

We all see that ratings are down. Some believe the downward trend will signal to TPTB that there's a problem.

I don't believe Supernatural's ratings are bad enough to worry the CW. At 12 years old, the show's usually number 3 of its network. It's been beating DC's Arrow consistently and it's usually getting similar or better ratings than DC's Legends of Tomorrow. Only DC's The Flash, (season 3) and DC's Supergirl (season 2), the constant number 1 and 2 shows of the network are doing better than 12 year-old Supernatural.

Here's what TV By The Numbers had to say.

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"(...) The network’s ratings have fallen a little bit year to year; it’s currently running a tenth of a point behind last season among adults 18-49 (0.7 vs. 0.8 in 2015-16). All of its veteran series are down.

WHAT'S WORKING

“Supergirl”: That Monday upgrade is real. Ratings have predictably fallen off since its move from CBS — but it’s more than doubled the 8 p.m. Monday average from last season (when “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” and “Reign” occupied the spot). It was a smart pickup for the network, and it’s unlikely a new show in the same spot would have performed as well

“Supernatural”: The show is down a little season to season — like most everything else on the network — but it’s 12 years old and still drawing a reliable audience. It’s among the six longest-running dramas on network TV at the moment.

So basically, if your CW show’s title begins with “Super” you’re holding up your end.

WHAT'S NOT WORKING

Superhero fatigue: “Legends of Tomorrow” has dipped 20 percent year to year, “The Flash” 21 percent and “Arrow” an unpleasant 31 percent. A full 40 percent of the network’s schedule for much of the season was devoted to DC superheroes, and the returns are diminishing.

The freshman class: “Riverdale” has done OK and will return for a second season, but “Frequency” and “No Tomorrow” were somewhat puzzling additions to the lineup, and the way they were scheduled was equally puzzling. “No Tomorrow” was an attempt to recapture the singular sensibility of “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” — which is as low-rated as it is creatively daring. And “Frequency” seemed like an awkward graft of time travel (so hot this year!) and the kind of procedural the network occasionally claims to want on its air, but it didn’t really fly.

WHAT'S NEEDED

A (somewhat) broader focus: The CW has shed one limiting identity — that it’s a network for teenage girls, which was itself a relic of The WB days — for another: that it’s only for comic-book fans. (...)"

FULL ARTICLE AT THE SOURCE: The CW needs to fight superhero fatigue: The blueprint for 2017-18 By Tvbythenumbers

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tl;dr, Supernatural's ratings are down but it's still doing better than most of the network. No matter how much I wish he were, I don't believe Dabb is shaking in his boots just yet. Now if we get a 0.4... lol.

The demos average

The Flash 1.00
Supergirl 0.7
Supernatural 0.6
Legends of Tomorrow 0.6

Arrow 0.5
iZombie 0.4 (new season started April 4 at 0.3)
Riverdale 0.4
Jane the Virgin 0.3
The Originals 0.3
The 100 0.3
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend 0.2
Frequency 0.2
No Tomorrow 0.2

Discuss. 🙂

▶ The Winchester Brothers Report by Vee

[–] aduty1 (160) 8 years ago

The best scenario is the CW notices that there has been a drop under Dabb and notice the apparent dissatisfaction among the fans. TPTB replace Dabb with someone that realizes how essential Dean is to the show and the ratings improve like after Gamble. I really hope we don't see a 0.4 but this might be the week.

[–] Virile Manifestation of the Divine (1020) 8 years ago

I too think our best chance is for TPTB to notice the dissatisfaction among fans and decide to do something to avoid losing too many viewers after season 12. History shows that ratings don't always collapse immediately after viewers start getting angry at storylines. They stay around a comfortable plateau and THEN start plummeting, especially after a bad season. I don't think Dabb is going to be replaced but I hope he will be strongly encouraged to revise his vision for season 13.

[–] CluelessDrifter (884) 8 years ago

Honestly, I think it's going to have to come from within the show if there is going to be a change. If the cast is happy, they'll keep Dabb. If the cast isn't happy, Dabb will either have to change or go.

It is worth noting this website I found that has been keeping track of Supernatural's ratings and comparing them to last year. Supernatural TV Season 12 Ratings The premise of the article may be skewed with an attempt to prove whether the show will be dropped sooner rather than later, but the numbers they use are right. You can look at the data and decide what you think. Here is how the drops in the average of the demo and overall viewers looks:

Season 12 - demo average: 0.62 -11.34%| overall viewers average: 1.722 -2.96%

Season 11 - demo average: 0.7 -12.97% | overall viewers average: 1.775 - 12.14%

Season 10 - demo average: 0.81 -18.53% | overall viewers average: 2.02 -7.60%

Season 9 - demo average: 0.99 +7.94% | overall viewers average: 2.19 +2.78%

Season 8 - demo average: 0.9 | overall viewers average: 2.13

Season 7 - demo average: 0.73 | overall viewers average: 1.73 (This was a big drop from season 6 with an average of 0.98 in the demo and 2.24 overall viewers).

Now I understand that differences in viewership could coincide with night of the week and time slot, but if you look at the drops between seasons 6 & 7 as a guideline for when the network thinks a change in show runners might be warranted, I don't think we're there yet. Bringing in Carver coincided with Seasons 8 & 9 increasing, and then there's been a steady drop in ratings in seasons 10, 11, and 12. The drop in season 12 is in-line with the drop last year, and might partially be due to the age of the show as well as the overall CW ratings slide, but given that we're looking at about a 10% drop in the demo every year, you'd think they'd want to maybe curtail that if they can. If we stay around 0.6, I'm just not sure that it's a big enough drop to see a change of show runner unless we start seeing 0.4s and stick to the 0.5s. That's why I think it will come down to whether or not the cast is happy, and even then, I'm guessing they won't be able to do much about it until 13 is over, and they're renegotiating contracts.

[–] Virile Manifestation of the Divine (1020) 8 years ago

"Honestly, I think it's going to have to come from within the show if there is going to be a change. If the cast is happy. They'll keep Dabb. If the cast isn't happy, Dabb will either have to change or go."

Jensen said that he read the scripts for the final episodes and that the writers continue to "impress" him. That's quite a turn around from his comments about Alpha & Omega. He sounds satisfied enough.

"I don't think we're there yet."

Neither do I. I'm not impressed with Dabb but I don't believe he's leaving anytime soon.

"If we stay around 0.6, I'm just not sure that it will drop low enough to see a change of show runner unless the cast get involved or if we start seeing 0.4s and stick to the 0.5s to drop the season average to a low enough level the network will notice. That's why I think it will come down to whether or not the cast is happy, and even then, I'm guessing they won't be able to do much about it until 13 is over, and they're renegotiating contracts."

Exactly. We have 8 episodes left. I'd be shocked if the ratings suddenly start plummeting to the point that they bring down the season's average. And the thing is, even if things get a little worse, SPN is STILL an amazing performer for the CW. Pedowitz has at least five bigger problems before he even starts thinking about breathing down Dabb's neck.

Jensen and Jared also don't come across deeply dissatisfied with this season. I remember their criticism of season 9. Jared calling Sam a jerk on Twitter, Jared saying he was disappointed in Sam and that he cried when he read the finale and even had to change a crucial line to erase some of Sam's previous comments. Jensen saying Sam was selfish in season 9. They weren't happy. They've been quiet this season. Even if they're not as excited as we've seen them be in the past (before the beginning of season 10), they're not mad enough to threaten Dabb's job. We're stuck with him for season 13.

[–] cassiopeia (528) 8 years ago

I think you are right. As long as Jared and Jensen are happy nothing will change. I do think that after S13 we will be getting shorter seasons. It has been mentioned a few times now that the J's would be on board with 6 episodes a season. Maybe a Netflix GG type of show. Unfortunately we are stuck with this team for the long haul.

That's funny about S9. I remember those remarks from the J's but now they have said at a few conventions when asked by fans which season was their favorite Jensen always says 9 and Jared usually agrees that it was one of his favorites as well.

[–] Pondlass1 (122) 8 years ago

No matter which way you look at it - Supernatural will go down in the history books as a smashing success. I mean... 13+ seasons. That's pretty damn amazing.

The writing might be dire at times, but the acting on this Show has always been vastly superior to some of procedurals that get the high ratings. The Js and Ms (especially Jensen) always bring it. Some guest stars have been damn impressive too.

I'm thinking they'll be granted a 14th season - maybe make it a short season in order to meet the benchmark of 300 episodes.

But I don't want the show to go out with a whimper. They'd better KICK IT IN THE ASS as a tribute to the late great Kim Manners and to all that the actors have brought to a little show called Supernatural.

[–] Virile Manifestation of the Divine (1020) 8 years ago

"No matter which way you look at it - Supernatural will go down in the history books as a smashing success. I mean... 13+ seasons. That's pretty damn amazing."

Couldn't agree more.

"I'm thinking they'll be granted a 14th season - maybe make it a short season in order to meet the benchmark of 300 episodes."

We're definitely getting a 14th season. Pedowitz has his eyes firmly set on the 300-episode prize. It would be silly to give up so close to that milestone.

"But I don't want the show to go out with a whimper. They'd better KICK IT IN THE ASS as a tribute to the late great Kim Manners and to all that the actors have brought to a little show called Supernatural."

Yeah, my point is, no matter what complaints some of us may have about season 12, Supernatural is doing well for the CW. I do believe that even though the ratings look good now, a change of direction would be desirable. Fans complaining about the direction of a show the way many have this season (and I'm talking fans on different platforms as well as critics), tend to lead to weaker numbers in the following season (and that's taking into account the expected year-to-year erosion of ratings).

TVByTheNumbers analyzes the CW's ratings: Supernatural is &quot;working&quot;

TVByTheNumbers analyzes the CW's ratings: Supernatural is "working"