Call-out stats and my predictions!
So because I'm a nerd, I took the time to do a ranking of the girls based on their call-out order. I looked at two numbers: their call-out mean, and their call-out median. I took those two numbers, averaged them, and that average is each girl's call-out score so far.
From first to last, here is each girl's call-out score as of Episode 6:
1. Cody - 3
2. CoryAnne - 3.8
3. Tatiana - 4.4
4. Courtney - 4.5
5. Marissa - 4.7
6. India - 5.7
7. Paige - 6.7
8. Binta - 6.8
9. Giah* - 7.75
10. Kyle - 9
11. Tash* - 9
12. Krislian* - 9.4
13. Cherish* - 12
14. Justine* - 14
* Eliminated girls
Based on these numbers plus the judges critiques, here's what I think about how the rest of the competition will play out:
I feel like CoryAnne is being set up for the "winner's edit." Especially after that comment from Rita about how she's "growing up." And she has the perfect story arc: the daughter of a 90s supermodel trying to make a name for herself, enters a modeling competition and stumbles at first, but eventually finds herself and goes on to take it all. It's almost a damn Lifetime movie. But if she keeps up the current level she's at, it will be a deserved win. She's likely gonna land in the bottom 2 (or damn near close to it) one more time before this is all over, though...
Cody has been killing it thus far. I can easily see her getting complacent (according to the judges, anyway) and landing in the bottom two/bottom three once to "wake her up," and then she'll go on to finish in 2nd place.
Marissa and Tatiana are likely gonna take 4th and 5th in this competition, with Marissa likely taking 4th even though Tatiana is statistically doing better. However, either one of them could easily make it to Top 3. Hell, Tatiana might overtake Cody and make it to the finale based on how much the judges seem to like her polish and professionalism. And as for Marissa, personality goes a long way in this competition, and Marissa definitely has that plus actual modeling talent (and she's young, which is a plus). Neither of these girls is going anywhere for a while.
Courtney is kinda the wild card in this competition. From a talent standpoint, she's too good to be eliminated before final 4, but the judges openly dislike her (in other words, she's the "Camille" of this cycle) so they could at any point decide they've just had enough of her and send her packing as early as next week. The only other thing I see sending her home before final 4 is if she gets too in her own head (which she has shown to do more than once already) and it ends up sabotaging her.
Kyle is the weakest one left by a WIDE margin, statistically speaking. She's the only one left who hasn't received a Top 5 call-out. Hell, she hasn't even been in the Top 6. Barring some miracle next week (or a MAJOR screw up by either India, Binta, or Paige), she's definitely the next to go.
I feel like India is slipping fast. She's doing pretty well statistically, but the judges don't seem very impressed by her anymore. She will likely be out the door after Kyle.
Binta takes fierce pictures, but it seems that "fierce" is her only setting and it makes her one-dimensional, and the judges are starting to see that. She and Paige have been pretty much neck and neck this entire competition, so it would only be fitting that they get eliminated one right after the other, and I don't see either one of them making it past 6th place unless Marissa, Tatiana or Courtney REALLY screw up in the next few weeks.
Well, those are my observations/predictions. What are some of yours?
If you are reading this, you have just lost The Game.