From what I remember, Julia Roberts was one of the safest bets for an Oscar win that year. Erin Brockovich was a huge hit with both critics and audiences. It was the peak of her career. In fact, Julia didn't only win things like the Oscar or the Golden Globe, she also got the Los Angeles Critics Awards , which usually goes to rather high-brow choices. There was no way she was going to lose the Academy Award.
Funnily enough, Ellen Burstyn was never considered the biggest competitor. Requiem for a Dream got a rather mixed response from critics back then and the movie was slapped with an NC-17 rating, so very few people saw it. Throughout the years, the film became some sort of cult classic. I remember Laura Linney was probably the one who was behind Julia in terms of likelihood at winning the Oscar but her movie was very small and it was her first acclaimed lead performance, while Julia was already on her third nomination.
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