I don't know if you guys will ever see this or even still care, but here's my attempt at explaining these issues.
1.
Does anyone else think that Jim Phelp's plan was kind of out there? Hoping that Tom Cruise would successfully come up with the plan to end up on that train after stealing the NOC list is very wishful thinking even with his aides guiding his thoughts and actions.
Phelps’ original plan never involved things like Ethan going to the CIA, stealing the NOC list, or contacting Max. He wasn’t hoping for Ethan to do anything except get framed as the mole.
Phelps was so desperate for his payday that when he found out Ethan was trying to get the real disc and sell it to Max by himself, he had no choice but to have Claire/Krieger tag along with Ethan every step of the way and see if there was money at the end of the tunnel for him to swipe. It wasn't really a plan, just a waiting game.
2.
They are world class spies, they should have an easy time disappearing and living on that $125k. In other words, what was the motivation for them to even go back to the safe house and stick around?
Why not leave with $125k: I think they already used that $125k to frame Ethan. This is roughly the same amount of money that IMF found deposited into the account of Ethan’s parents, which led them to suspect him in the first place. Anyway this little bit of money meant nothing to Phelps/Claire. The whole reason they threw away their lives was for the big 6 million dollar payday if the disc passed a scan test, not for $125k.
Why they went back to the safehouse and stuck around: Someone (Claire) needed to stay alive and get an update from Ethan. Did IMF suspect him of killing the other agents? Did the frame job work? Was he disavowed? Does Ethan suspect Phelps of framing him? If IMF doesn’t suspect Ethan, who are they going after?... etc etc…Phelps and Claire still needed to wrap up these loose ends so they can disappear knowing everything went smoothly and they don’t have to keep looking over their shoulder.
3.
After Claire finds out the first one was fake, and they get the real one from Langley... wouldn't the obvious move then be to swipe the real one and re-contact and re-negotiate a sale with Max? There was ZERO need to let Ethan make all the moves and use him to set the meet with Max on the train.
Well, considering that Max is an infamous arms dealer who just found out that “Job” (Phelps) betrayed her by giving her a faulty disc, I would guess that there’s no chance in hell Phelps would dare approach her again. She pretty much hates his guts at this point. Next, Max is now locked into a deal with Ethan to buy the real NOC list (she already gave him a $150k advance) so she is expecting to get the product from him, not some new guy (or “Job” again). She almost got busted the first time (when IMF found her within 2 minutes of using the fake disc) so she’s on her guard. She’s not going to trust any more random sellers.
Phelps/Claire/Krieger need Ethan to conduct the sale because he’s the only one Max trusts. Taking the disc from Ethan is not the hard part. It’s selling the disc under the radar that they’re worried about. If they kill him, they lose this opportunity to get a quick 6 million. It won’t be easy for them to find a new legitimate buyer soon who would pay this much.
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