Some flaws in Mr. Harris alternate history scenario
Since everything has been said about that mediocre movie and we're talking more about Mr. Harris' book, as a WWII buff I have some doubts about that alternate outcome. Anyway one must recognize that Harris was more worried about building a sound detective plot that making alternate history:
1.- THE END OF WAR: In the book scenario, Germany defeats his enemies sequentially and one at a time, with no influence of each defeat in the other allies' fighting will:
a)Victory over the USSR in 1942: the Caucasus offensive turns out to be a total success (maybe 'cause hitler stuck to the original Blau Plan securing Stalingrad first before marching to the south, instead of deviating the pz divisions that were advancing to the city to help in the Don crossing to the south, as actually happened) and the Red Army is deprive of his fuel supplies.
b) Britain is defeated in 1943: somehow the Germans learn about Ultra decoding their Enigma machines, gives their U-Booten new encripting equipment and win the Atlantic Battle.
c) Finally armistice with the US is 1946. Apparently the Pacific Campaign went on exactly the same way that in actual history, Hiroshima and Nagasaki are nuked. Then the Germans send a "V-3" rocket(why V-3? if the british were defeated in 1943, then there was no bomber offensive and then nothing to revenge about so there was no reason to call the F-103 Flying Bomb and the A4 ground-to-ground missil as V-1 and V-2 respectively) to explode over NY and that's enough to get the americans seated at the peace table.
Sound and feasible or too far-fetched? in my opinion:
a) Seems quite reasonable, even though at least one other offensive (aimed at Moscow) would've been needed to bring the might of the Red Army to its knees. Besides the big question is: What would have done the Germans after their panzer divisions reach the Caucausus Range? According to the loosely planned "Orient Plan" the next move would have been pushing to the Middle East and the Persian Gulf in order of depriving the British Empire of their main oil source, while at the same time Rommel advancing through the Suez Canal to join the main attack. One might imagine Turkey readily joining the Axis ranks and the offensive been a total success. I've got no doubt that such offensive would had been a complete success, but then b) would have been unnecesary. And the "Russian Problem" would had remained unsolved, until a new offensive thrust at Moscow would had been launched in spring/summer 1943. The other question is: What would the allies had done in the face of a Soviet defeat? Maybe carrying away a desperate Sledgehammer landing in Bretagne, most probably than not doomed to failure. In any case is hard to imagine the Western Allies standing still, waiting for their turn.
b) Let's assume the british keep fighting, even deprived of his only continental ally (something they never did before). Would had Ultra breaking been enough to win the battle over Atlantic Supply lines? Victory over the U-Böoten was not only matter of Ultra, but also of ever growing numbers of boats and planes used to protect the convoys and searching and destroying the underwater menace. I think Doenitz in order to win his battle, would had need another technological gadget, like some sort of radar warning system able of detecting signals from 10-cm trasnmitters. Of even better a jamming device.
c) Why do the Americans continue in the fight? Without bases in Britain or N. Africa there's no way of inflicting some damage in the Reich, worse if the enemy controls the Altantic. And would have the Germans betrayed their japanese allies letting the Americans to finish them at will? And if the Americans were so stubborn (with isolasionists, so vocal before the war completely muted) to continue the war, would a rocket exploding harmlessly over NYC sufficed to make America change is mind.
2.- THE ENDLESS WAR: War with the soviets doesn't end in the Cacasus or with Moscu and Leningrad falling in German hands and panzers eastward flashing through the Urals. Sweeping movements that conquered huge expansions of land in months are replaced but a gruelling, neverending war in the Ural eastern border of the Reich, some sort of mixture of border skirmishes over a extended static frontline and guerrilla war in the German rear. Would the defeated Soviets had the will or means for sustaining that sort of attrition war with no decisive actions and no end in sight, waiting only for an eventual collapse of the Reich? (not any signs of it in fictitious 1964)And, Wouldn't had the Germans tried some sort of final offensive deepening their eastward advance?.In 20 years they'd had more than enough time for building supplies, establishing supply lines and amassing enough troops for such and endeavour instead of boggling 'emselves in a new version of WWI trench fighting.
3.- THE COLD WAR: Why there's a cold War anyway? There was no fundamental ideological divide between the US and the Nazis. 'Cause the germans were racists? Gimme a break, we're talking about 40's, 50's and early 60's segregating US. There's no Nazi ideological goal of destroying capitalism. Would the US People had tolerated the endlessly drain of resources for supporting the Communist in sustaining a war with no purpose nor apparent ending? And don't forget that keeping a Cold War with the Reich would had meant breaking economics ties with US main trading partner: Western Europe (as a whole), too strong an economic sacrifice for not clearly defined ideological principles
4.- A REICH-LED EU: Harris simply transposes 1990's European Union into his alternate scenario with exactly the same members. Why not including Eastern European Countries, strong German allies like Hungary, Romania and Croatia? even the Serbians (one may assumed they were given back independence by then, even with a much reduced territory). Besides, there's no comparation between the actual Warsaw Pact, where the economic and industrial might of the USSR was far ahead of the rest, with a German-Led Europe that includes countries with a strong economic and industrial base and scientific advances like the UK and France. Those countries (and Italy) would have been treated more like allies than vassails. They also had colonies (btw no mention of the hypotetical Nazi-Germany colonial empire in Africa is ever made) and strong fleets.
5.- GERMANY WINNING IN ALL SPORTS. Too cartoonish for me. If the germans had a little decency they wouldn't had kept fixing sporting competitions result every time. German supremacy wouldn't had been at risk if Italy defeated'em in football or Hungary in Waterpolo from time to time. As an actual reference, there were some friendly football matches between the two Steel Pact partners during WWII, with the italians wining more time than the Germans.
6.- GUERRILLA WAR AND THE REICH AS TERRORIST HAVEN: Harris depict the triumphant reich as been troubled by terrorist attacks and guerrilla activity everywhere, even in Berlin itself. But in WWII partisan and resistance movements were effective only when they could get somo support from the outside or the opposing forces were too weak. But how could the Soviets support guerrillas deep into the Reich if they were defeated and deprived of means 'emselves. And if there weren't the soviets, were did that wide array of resistance movements: russians, poles, ucranians, serbians even romanians would had get their weapons, explosives and supplies?
7.-FOREIGN WORKERS EVERYWHERE YOU SEE: Harris anticipates for the 60's and scenario that started to become more familiar in West Europe main cities since the 70's and 80's: the proliferation of foreign workers, mainly doing menial task like sweeping the streets, collecting garbages or as maids.Certainly the reich brought hundreds of thousands of conscripted workers to cover for german workers sent to the front, but a extremely nationalistic Reich wouldn't had let them stay. Don't forget that present-day nationalist and extreme-right movements dismiss the "unwanted jobs" claim for bringing foreing inmigrants poiting in turn to the high unemployement rates in many european countries. Why would the Third Reich had acted in the opposite direction?