Ramius' plan didn't make sense?

He knew this though. He anticipated that the Russians would undoubtedly hunt him. He had a guesstimate at best at how the Soviets would tell the story to the US but that didn't really affect anything. He comes right out and says it in the 'Cowboy' speech. If they get someone level headed it can work. If they get a cowboy, all bets are off. He even admits on multiple levels he didn't have a plan for dealing with how he would handle the situation when it cam. IE the 'what were you planning on doing sailing into NY Harbor, popping the hatch and saying here I am?" This is obviously the kind of dynamic situation that you cannot fully plan for. Some times you have to just adapt as it comes, which is exactly what they did.

You are taking a dump and they call GQ do you pinch it off or finish your business?

He told his officers he gave them a 1 in 3 chance. He wasn't worried about the Russian navy as he had trained most of them and knew their tactics. It is easy to break into a house if you know where they keep their spare key.

On the other hand, if he failed, then neither side would have the sub.

Do we know that he knew his government would lie to the Americans and try to get them to help sink Red October? Looked a little unexpected to people in the movie, it seems like that didn't happen in the book but I haven't read it in 15 years so I can't remember. We don't really know what Ramius' plan was because we didn't see his plan carried out. As far as the film is concerned the plan is mostly made by the Americans. They don't plan much together, they only have the Morse code conversation (which Ramius only replies to with pings) and the next time they speak is when Ryan and company board the Red October. Between then Ryan, Greer, Mancuso and whoever else have put this plan together with the mini sub and the destroyer, based on the hunch that Ramius had always planned to stage a reactor incident to get the crew off. Which was the only part of the whole plan that Ramius was in charge of, other than putting on a show to fool his crew he was out of the loop.

From the best I can tell from a few conversations, the plan was likely to put the crew off the ship, and then go defect to the Americans. I mainly base that on the conversation where Borodin says they can try to make the Labrador coast and Ramius says half of them would freeze before they were rescued. From that it sounds like the original plan to put the crew off didn't involve teaming up with the Americans to fool them. Just fake the reactor incident, get the crew off, then maybe they take it below to supposedly scuttle the ship, and go in search of an American vessel to contact and defect. Plus telling them to go rescue his crew.

But yes, he was very lucky that there was a guy who put his job (and possibly humanity) on the line for a hunch. Jack Ryan's cool like that though. And remember, his plan didn't account for Jonesy being able to track his silent drive. Even if the Americans were after him he could maybe contact them stealthily. He didn't plan on a saboteur either. A lot of lucky things happen in the movie, even some seemingly unlucky things (like Dallas tracking them) turn out to be lucky for them.

I've wondered recently if Ramius had a different plan for the political officer. He always seemed a little disappointed, or hesitant to kill him. Like he wanted to try to talk to him but just gave up because of the guy's enthusiasm for his job and just killed him. The other officers obviously assumed he had something else in mind. Maybe Ramius only planned to restrain/imprison him but since the guy was in a hurry to rush off with the orders had to act fast and kill him. Was any of that in the book? I'm sure the scene has probably been discussed quite a bit, what's the consensus on that?

"Dan Marino should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell. Would you like a cookie son?"

It wouldn’t make a thrilling story but if he hadn’t announced his plan to defect, they could have slipped away easily and popped up in New York , like the U.S. Captain said.
All the Russians on the exercise would just be sailing about saying “Crikey, that silent drive is good. We can’t find him anywhere.”
The sabotage would have happened anyway, but they could have just sat there till it got fixed, without worrying about a chasing fleet.