How would life in Val Verde have changed under the Arius administration?

Arius had a lot of resources if he was able to hire about 100+ militiamen and build a compound on one of the Channel Islands in California (meaning he would have had to bribe United States Military or Government officials unless they were in on it and he was actually working FOR THEM because there are no private dwellings or land on any of those islands). Meanwhile it looks like life in Val Verde was very impoverished.

How would things have changed if Arius's planned coup had worked out for him? Was his army split between Los Angeles and the island or did he have thousands more loyal men elsewhere?

We can assume that it would have been a fairly bloody coup from all the weaponry he had amassed, but almost certainly would have relied on U.S. logistics and air support much like the Bay of Pigs Invasion in the early 60's. I think it's fair to say that with the Val Verde government decapitated by Matrix, it could have been overwhelmed pretty quickly. The Arius administration would have likely had full United States/CIA/IMF backing and led to an entire restructuring of the society. It probably would have ended up with lots of foreign aid and food (causing an inflationary dependence cycle where the rich get richer and the poor stay dependent of the aid packages) for a while but eventually succumbed to market forces and debt, leading to another coup in which Arius has to flee the country, much like Sri Lanka.