It basically came down to the fact that after the President forced Scott's resignation, THEN you had the Secretary of the Treasury in effect blackmailing Scott into staying out of politics forever. In the novel, Scott had an affair not with the Eleanor Holbrook character but a *friend* of Eleanor Holbrook (who is a former mistress of Jiggs Casey who in the novel is married) and managed to get an improper tax break for his then-mistress. Lyman refused to use that impropriety of the affair and tax break against Scott but after Scott resigned, the Treasury Secretary Dodd did, "You are not going to run for President two years from now, treaty or no treaty, or else I'll run this whole thing in the papers." Scott by this point was a man resigned to his fate.
OTOH, the character of Senator Prentice, it seems was away at a mountain resort with no telephone and was totally unaware of the fact that the plot had been outed and was on his way to take part in the implementation when *Prentice* ran his car off the road and was killed. The original draft of the screenplay that was shot was transferring Prentice's death to Scott but then Frankenheimer scrapped that and had it reshot to just show Scott resignedly asking to be driven home. This new ending was actually shot during the production of "The Train" in France and Frankenheimer I remember mentioned having to conceal French signs in order to get the shot.
Regarding the "bet", Dieffenbach predicted that General Rutkowski the NORAD commander who was not part of the plot would be the next JCS chairman, whereas Scott predicted it would be Admiral Palmer, the one members of the Joint Chiefs who was not part of the plot. Scott was right (Rutkowski was promoted to Air Force Chief of Staff).
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