Poppy,
Excellent point. The binary reduction of the OP ignores the ambiguous elements in the film. My take on what happens next, which is what the question really is about, will depend to some extent on whether Lina obtains evidence showing Johnny was in Liverpool or Paris. If Paris, then obviously redemption is not likely, as Johnny has already in effect caused Beaky's death. If Liverpool, then just the opposite.
Of course the mere fact (if it so turns out) that Johnny was not in Paris does not mean that he has already achieved redemption. Even that take on the film means Johnny may well have any number of future falls from grace. But at least he would not have crossed that line of causing another's death, and if that is the case, then Lina may be satisfied with a future with such a man as Johnny, however difficult that might be.
Conversely if it turns out Johnny was in Paris, he would likely face some criminal charges, and it might not even be a question of Lina's preference.
Ftr I am aware of the FAQ notes both on how the book ends and even the referenc to Hitchcock's supposed preferred ending, but since neither of those are how the film ends, they would not appear to be the least bit binding on this discussion.
One other item of interest, is if Johnny in fact was in Liverpool, I do not know of any impediment to him getting Beaky's money, other than some ultra vires claim by his estate, which presumably would be deemed to have some stock ownership in the corporation. But that would be a difficult case, given what we know about the papers that were drawn up. I presume in this connection that Johnny could not resort to use of those corporate assets to pay off his debt to Captain Melbeck before the film ended since the matter of Beaky's death was still under investigation. But later, if he was not in Paris, would be a different matter.
Having said all of the foregoing, which do I personally think is most likely to happen?
First of all, despite Johnny's being a congenital liar, I find it hard to believe he would think he could rely on the Liverpool alibi if it were totally without basis. It would evaporate too easily, and he would know that. I also think the paper trail of his attempt to draw on the life insurance policy on Lina would also cause him some caution. Anyone thinking about it would have to see what that would be seen as if Lina later died in mysterious circumstances. But if instead Lina can help him hold off Captain Melbeck, and Johnny is not drawn into a finding of responsibility in connection with Beaky's death, then there is actually some light at the end of the tunnel, however transitory, for the couple.
Call it a skeptic's analysis leading to a guardedly optimistic prediction.
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