MovieChat Forums > Boris Johnson Discussion > He will win again in 2024

He will win again in 2024

posted 3 years ago by KaiMaster (902)
11 replies | jump to latest

UK Labour is unelectable. Look at Scotland. It used to be dominated by Labour, now is governed by SNP.

[–] capuchin (3182) 3 years ago

I highly doubt the Conservatives will permit him to lead them into the next election. If they do though, there's no way they will win a second majority with him. Or probably without him either.

They may still end up as the largest party, so depending on the parliamentary mathematics, may be able to continue as a minority government. But that's not a 'win' in a FPTP system.

[–] KaiMaster (902) 3 years ago

Who should be the Leader of the Conservatives in 2024??

[–] capuchin (3182) 3 years ago

Oh, that's really a matter for the Conservative Party.

As someone who doesn't wish them well, I sincerely hope they stick with Boris Johnson. His personal reputation is irrecoverable and the longer they keep him the more damage he will do to the overall brand.

Barring an economic miracle, I don't see them winning the next election outright with or without him. But I certainly don't expect Labour to win it either.

2024 has hung parliament written all over it. Retaining or dispensing with Johnson may prove the difference between the Conservatives retaining power as a minority government or handing it over to a progressive coalition though. And I think that would depend on the when as much as the who.

Historically, the Conservatives have proven very astute at both getting rid of leaders who are no longer of use to them, and the timing of those decisions. I don't think it'll be any different this time around -- but I hope I'm wrong and they keep hold of him.

[–] KaiMaster (902) 3 years ago

A Labour-LibDem Coalition Government would be a disaster.

[–] capuchin (3182) 3 years ago

Well, I said coalition, didn't I? But confidence & supply in exchange for PR legislation seems more likely after the Lib Dems' last experience in formal coalition.

And the closer that possibility gets, the more it'll concentrate Tory minds on questions of leadership and branding. Which is why I can't see them permitting Johnson to lead them into the election.

But, again, I hope I'm wrong. Stick with him, see what happens. Why not? Tories of the world unite, you have to nothing to lose but your seats. Or something.

[–] [deleted] 3 years ago

At least it's not governed by the (spits) Tories.

[–] KaiMaster (902) 2 years ago

An independent Scotland would be a Third-World Country.

[–] huwdj (4566) 2 years ago

That's the stock answer of all Little Britain Tories but the fact is there are smaller countries than Scotland, and Wales, doing very well thank you very much.

[–] capuchin (3182) 2 years ago

Yeah, it's the kind of silly rhetoric unionists used during the referendum campaign. Admittedly, there are some economic questions the SNP failed fully to address, but the notion that it'd be an absolute disaster -- as if the Scots are children who can't possibly govern themselves -- is pretty offensive.

Of course, English Tories fear the exact opposite to be true. Far from being a 'Third World Country', a sensibly-run independent Scotland, back inside the EU and leaning towards Nordic-style social democracy, would present a real problem for the Conservatives... as the English would have an example of a better way right on their doorstep.

Then they'd have to switch to 'Well, that kind of thing wouldn't work here.'

[–] KaiMaster (902) 2 years ago

Instead of being ruled by the UK, you want to be ruled by the EU.

Brilliant logic.

[–] capuchin (3182) 2 years ago

I'd dispute 'ruled'. I think that's tabloid sloganeering.

But -- for the sake of argument -- let's pretend that would indeed be the case, and Scotland would prefer to be 'ruled' by the EU rather than the UK.

That wouldn't be the failure of logic you snarkily suggest. That would be a pragmatic choice taken by an independent nation in its own perceived best interests. That's what independent nations do. They decide their own economic and political arrangements.

And I think having the choice of whether or not to rejoin the EU as an independent nation is probably better than being dragged out of a trading bloc by the English, who still insist on voting for the Tories you yourself rejected permanently decades ago.

But however you slice it up, it isn't a failure of 'logic' any more than it's failure of logic on your part to cheer on Brexit but to find Scots silly for wanting to leave an entirely different political and economic arrangement. It's a bit like hearing someone wants to leave a gym to join another gym or a health spa and claiming it's 'illogical' to do so.

These are matters of practicality and realpolitik, not ideological posturing.