Will Tom Cruise EVER win a Oscar?
Paul Newman later in life did. I see similarities with their careers because they are both 'pretty boys' and their acting chops get short changed.
Crusie is last man standing of the $20 mil a picture actors, this works against him. Creating envy, being less willing to work with other stars etc..
Unless he is willing to take a supporting role eventually, he will never become a Oscar winner.