Statistically it's going to be because people have behaved like complete idiots as the shelter-in-place orders have been lifted, forgetting all about masks and handwashing and partying like the virus has somehow gone away.
But most people are going to blame the riots rather than themselves.
Well you have to be honest and admit that the riots will not help the situation - they can't simply be dismissed if there is a spike, especially in minority neighborhoods.
shareTrue, there are going to be localized outbreaks among protestors, and their friends, families, and co-workers soon.
However, IMHO the number of protestors is insignificant, compared to the number of people who are out shopping, going to restaurants or beaches, socializing, etc., without masks or social distancing or hand hygiene, as if they think the virus had ceased to exist. I mean, we're talking tens of thousands vs. something like half the general population!
How will we ever achieve herd immunity unless the people who aren't in the high risk group get out and spread the darn thing around? Even in Sweden they estimate that less than 15% of the population has been infected.
So what do we do - wait around until a vaccine, (that may never be developed), comes along? It's simply not possible to do that. I hope we have a vaccine, but if we don't then herd immunity and more effective treatments are the answer.
There are two ways to achieve herd immunity: 1) Vaccinate everyone, or 2) let the disease run unchecked through the population, and assume all the survivors have enough antibodies to be immune or resistant.
Well, they gave Method #2 a go in New York, and the results have made me willing to keep socially distancing, wearing a mask, and correctly using gloves and hand hygiene until I get vaccinated. Eager, even!
Lord, we need more people like you, Otter. I live near Boston, which has been STOMPED by Covid because of the recent Biogen convention, where we have mandatory face mask orders, and we are in Stage 1 of rollback and nitwits are walking outside with no masks, no distance. Fuck, for the past 2 weeks I’ve seen half my neighbors with their masks only over their mouths. Yes, I live among morons, but still . . . ?! That’s like fucking with half a rubber.
shareSorry to hear that, and sometimes all you can do is protect your own self. FYI frequent and serious hand hygiene is the best known way to do that. Wear a mask, too, it will block droplets (or some droplets, depending on the kind of mask), and it will also keep you from touching your face with hands that are potentially contaminated.
I really was hoping the whole attempt to minimize the effect of the pandemic would go more smoothly, but human stupidity is a monumental and uncheckable force. Same for selfishness.
You probably know that, following the USA dropping the first nuclear bomb on Japan, Albert Einstein said, “There are only two things in Creation that are unlimited: the Universe, and human stupidity.”
You are a good friend, Otter. Thank you for your advice. I infer you work in health care. Everyone you touch is fortunate.
Do you wear your mask when driving alone?
shareBut 2 out of 5 deaths in NY were from people in long term health care and I believe that is the average across the country also. For the most part healthy people do not die or even have serious complications from this.
As I previously mentioned, keep at risk people safe and let the world go on.
Exactly what do you propose if a vaccine is not developed?
Oh, a vaccine WILL be developed! The question is whether an *effective* vaccine will be developed! Well, I'll let you know, my "essential" job means I'll probably be vaccinated before the general population, and I might have to trust it.
As for so many deaths being people in long-term health care, well, your stats mean that 3 out of 5 people who died were NOT in long-term health care. And yes, it seems that many people who get seriously ill do have some sort of risk factor, but not all. And the fact is that many of these risk factors are incredibly common - if you look at the over-forty population that a huge proportion of them has a few extra pounds, or high blood pressure, or a history of smoking or some other respiratory issue, or diabetes, etc. But these aren't chronically ill people, these are active, productive, totally normal people in the prime of life, people with dependent children and aging parents, with necessary jobs and mortgages to pay, people that society can't spare to loose in large numbers. And then there are the young people who've gotten sick or died, or those with no risk factors.
So, everybody, none of this "they're all sick and old let them die" crap while I'm around!
I never said that about old people. If you think I did, you misunderstood. If anything the people in long term health care should have been the ones most protected and never have caught this crap in the first place.
You simply can't ignore the numbers - the largest percentages of deaths have been people over 60 and even then it's not until the 70-80 age group where the numbers really jump.
So you think they will develop and administer a "vaccine" that has not proven to be effective? Not in a million years. It may be one like the current flu vaccine that doesn't give 100% protection based on the strain, but they simply won't throw something out there hoping it works.
But - back to my original question - what happens if they don't develop a vaccine?????
easy!!
Anti-lockdown protestor's with no masks + beach goers during spring break and Memorial Day +
Rioters and looters = herd immunity.
What do you think?
I agree, but countries won't be shut down again. It will be localised. Once folk take to public transport like they used to it will definitely spike again 😔
shareThe people using public transport could prevent that by using appropriate masks and hygiene, but my guess is that they won't. They'll think that masks are uncool, or that the danger is over, or that the political events of the day are more important.
Well, the last isn't true if you think about the big picture, a pandemic can kill millions, it's already killed a hundred thousand.