Comedy categories
I think Comedy is going to see a fairly big shake-up with a number of new winners.
Best Series - Orange Is the New Black. They clearly like the show and I think the writing nom over Modern Family moves it ahead.
Best Lead Actor - William H. Macy. In most surprise wins, I believe the performance is one that walks the line between comedy/drama - which is exactly what Shameless is. I think the show finally breaking through now that it's competing as a comedy, puts the beloved Macy at the top. This is also a pretty wide open race. I think love for The Big Bang Theory is also slipping considering the other actors haven't been able to breakthrough yet. However, Jim Parson's nomination for The Normal Heart might give him an additional advantage (since they obviously liked him there and he's definitely not winning that).
Best Lead Actress - Julia Louis-Dreyfuss. I don't think Taylor Schilling is as much of a competitor as the many nominations for Orange Is the New Black suggest she might be - she's in because it's a popular show, not because she's particularly popular or proven. I don't see anything to suggest that Dreyfuss isn't repeating here.
Best Supporting Actor - Ty Burrell. Modern Family is slipping, but it's not losing everything. Tony Hale is not repeating - last year's win was just as much for Arrested Development as Veep. And since Brooklyn Nine-Nine was not as embraced as people thought it would be, I don't think Andre Braugher can pull it off.
Best Supporting Actress - Allison Janney. They love her.
I don't know about the other categories.
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