Emmy Comedy Winner Predictions
COMEDY SERIES
The Big Bang Theory
Why it may win: It's been nominated four years in a row, which may force the Emmys to finally give it something and Jim Parsons is a regular Emmy magnet. It's very huge with the public.
Why it may not win: I don't think the Emmys really take it seriously enough to win. Big Bang is not a prestige comedy, which decreases its chance of winning.
Verdict: Unlikely to win an Emmy. The show's not "respectable" enough to convince the Emmys of its worthiness. But considering how popular the show is, it could pull off an upset win, but only because of that reason alone.
Louie
Why it may win: The Emmys have shown that they love Louis CK as he's been nominated a very large amount of times and he's won a sizable amount of Emmys. The series is a prestige comedy, which increases its chances of victory.
Why it may not win: They love giving awards to CK, but not the big one. The Emmys seem unwilling to actual give him an award that means something and although he may continue to get more awards, they'll just be consolation prizes. Also, although its a prestige comedy, the humor may not rub Emmy voters the right way, as the show is much slower paced that most comedies. The show's also not huge among the public so sentiment behind it is disadvantaged.
Verdict: Unlikely to win an Emmy. The show is probably too weird to appeal to the entire Emmy base. It could win on the strength of directing and writing nominations, but I just don't see it.
Modern Family
Why it may win: The show has won FOUR previous Emmys in the categories. Four. If it wins this year, it'll tie Frasier's record. If the Emmys could do it once, they can do it again. The show's still somewhat popular.
Why it may not win: The public has kinda soured against MF, and the Emmys may do the same. The same show winning year after year may wear out enough dissenting voters that their votes may outweigh the assenters.
Verdict: Pretty damn likely. The reigning champ four years running has a clear shot to the top. However, if it does win, it may be the last time it wins in the category, as it certainly seems that MF's time at the top is winding down.
Orange Is the New Black
Why it may win: The show is really popular. The Emmys have taken a liking to this show. Doesn't seem to have many detractors. The Emmys like Netflix shows. It's a prestige show.
Why it may nor win: Relatively new, but that hasn't stopped many shows before.
Verdict: Likely. I think this show has the best chance of beating Modern Family.
Silicon Valley[i]
Why it may win: The show has enough prestige so that the Emmys may take it seriously enough to give it the win. The show received some valuable support from the directing and writing categories.
Why it may not win: The show didn't make much of a splash so the Emmys may be wary of giving an Emmy to an unknown entity.
Verdict: Very unlikely. I honestly thought that Brooklyn Nine-Nine would get nominated instead, but here we are. (I've got nothing against Silicon Valley personally) The show just isn't well-known enough to justify giving it the win. Could it win? Anything's possible. But it'd be the upset of the century.
[i]Veep
Why it may win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus is very popular at the Emmys. It's a prestige show. The show is slowly gaining traction at the Emmys with each passing year.
Why it may not win: The show's pretty under the radar when compared with other shows.
Verdict:Spoiler. This show exists as a fall-back option just in case the Emmys decide not to go with Modern Family or Orange Is the New Black. It has the stuff needed to win, but it doesn't have all the support needed to get over the line. But its far from an impossibility
BEST TO WORST CHANCE
1. Modern Family - Very likely
2. Orange is the New Black - Likely
3. Veep - Maybe likely
4. Louie - Unlikely
5. The Big Bang Theory - Unlikely
6. Silicon Valley - Very Unlikely
IMPRESSIONS
Not a strong category. (Not in quality, but in chances of winning). Just like the Drama category, there are only two shows that have a real chance of taking the biggie - Modern Family and Orange Is the New Black. The other shows are either contingencies (Veep), remote possibilities (The Big Bang Theory, Louie) or nigh impossibilities (Silicon Valley).