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'Rogue One' vs 'Passengers' vs 'Assassin's Creed': a slaughter?


3 huge PG-13 sci-fi/action/adventure movies all battling for the same demographic over X-mas: will this result in a slaughter at the box office or will it be a feast for everyone? Do the 2 non-Star Wars releases even stand a chance? If so, which one of the two do you think is more likely to triumph over the other?

'Assassin's Creed' is based on a very popular game and has two hugely respected actors in lead roles with Michael Fassbender and Oscar winner Marion Cotillard, though it could be argued that both have not enough star power (yet) to be big box office draws. The film's budget is reported to be around 130 million, which means it will have to do very good business to become profitable.

'Passengers' is based on an original script by Jon Spaihts - but the film comes with two of the biggest stars Hollywood has to offer right now: Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. At 120 million it is a bit more modestly budgeted than 'Assassin's Creed', but it will also have to make a lot of money to be considered a success.

How do you assess those films' respective prospects at the box office?



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Unlike establish franchise or genre comedy, movie like that are dependent a lot of their receptions and reviews, not sure they have a low (they could do warcraft level of nothing who knows) or maximums.

We don't have much example of the past, no similar blockbuster was in star wars 7 legs, well except point break but I'm not sure it really count.

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Unlike establish franchise or genre comedy, movie like that are dependent a lot of their receptions and reviews, not sure they have a low (they could do warrant level of nothing who knows) or maximums.
I agree. Let's assume for a moment all three films have excellent reviews. Under those circumstances, for the weekend of December 21 it would basically come down to the race between a well known brand ('Assassin's Creed') against star power (Lawrence and Pratt).

What do you think will be the bigger draw for audiences?

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I get the feeling that both will miss (releasing two sci-fi films in the wake of the 500 pound gorilla of the genre seems a bit strange), but I think star-power would win the day, unless the promotion for Passengers is completely bungled, and Assassin's Creed actually grabs the attention of people who've never heard of the games.

Shut it, Love Actually! Do you want me to hole punch your face?

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I get the feeling that both will miss (releasing two sci-fi films in the wake of the 500 pound gorilla of the genre seems a bit strange), but I think star-power would win the day, unless the promotion for Passengers is completely bungled, and Assassin's Creed actually grabs the attention of people who've never heard of the games.
Yeah, I'm also thinking along those lines. But seriously: what were they thinking? Just as you said; releasing two big budget sci-fi(ish) films just one week after what is expected to be another Disney juggernaut - it really seems like a gamble. Unless 'Rogue One' receives terrible reviews, I just don't see those two later releases succeeding.

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Do they have a logic: star wars create a getting to the theater habit during Christmas, people will go more in cinemas, will see the trailers in theater and we will take advantage of a smaller percentage of a much larger than usual pie ?

Because for a video games movie and according to people that have read passengers scripts, it is not to take advantages of the awards season.

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Mixed received trailer for Assassins and unconfident ubisoft make me think passengers at least domestic, maybe a bit more counter programming, but we have yet to see anything from it.

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Mixed received trailer for Assassins and unconfident ubisoft make me think passengers at least domestic, maybe a bit more counter programming, but we have yet to see anything from it.

Apparently 'Passengers' is going through reshoots at the moment, which could be why we haven't seen anything from it so far.

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Here are my box office predictions for these three.

Rogue One
OW: $180M
FG: $575M

Assassin's Creed
OW: $19M
FG: $75M

Passengers
OW: $27M
FG: $100M

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