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Presidential historian: The top six reasons Trump won’t win in 2024 | Commentary

posted 3 years ago by robocat893 (16260)
2 replies | jump to latest

Donald Trump clearly wants to run for president again in 2024. Here are six solid reasons why, if nominated, he is unlikely to win.

1. Trump has lost the popular vote in two presidential elections. Yes, he won the Electoral College in 2016. He carried the vote in that troubled mechanism the founders devised to dilute the potential damage that unfettered democracy might do to the new republic. Numerous attempts by Trump to claim that his vote totals exceeded those of opposing candidates in particular states have failed.

2. It is contrary to the American tradition to elect a once-defeated presidential candidate. Only one has succeeded; Grover Cleveland won in 1884, lost in 1888 (although he carried the popular vote), and won again in 1892.

3. Trump is a tarnished candidate. His overall popularity has never been large except with certain right-leaning voters, mostly in the South. There is abundant evidence that his stock is in decline among Republicans – the most evident being Fox News’ decreasing interest. Until the flap over the FBI’s raid on Trump’s Florida home last weekend, Fox had not done a featured interview about Trump for a hundred days.

4. Trump is a sore loser who, to this day, refuses to concede his electoral defeat in 2020. The American people are not kind to politicians or athletes who cannot graciously accept defeat. The public, except for Trump’s fanatical followers, is simply tired of the endless drama surrounding him.

5. Trump’s attempt to overthrow the 2020 election outcome failed and cannot be resurrected, despite the weaknesses it exposed in the American system. There is a strong movement toward legislative reform of the 1887 Electoral Count Act, parts of which the Trump forces attempted to exploit, including pressuring Vice President Mike Pence to refuse to complete the normally ceremonial count. If Pence had attempted any such thing, Congress would have overruled him. The election was over, counted and confirmed.

6. It is too early to gauge the impact of the FBI search at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida enclave. Once the fuss over that search dies down, it is hard to conceive how this episode helps Trump in the fall elections, especially if it is proven he kept documents related to nuclear weapons development, deployment and defense.

The bottom line is that Trump’s prominence has been bad for the spirit and the performance of the Republican Party.

Trump will never be president again.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/presidential-historian-top-six-reasons-100000507.html

[–] Freddy (1325) 3 years ago

now if we can just get the news media to pick someone else to glorify I am so sick of all the idiots who think Trump is a businessman in stead of a great con man oh well

[–] CowherPower4Ever (241) 3 years ago

Liberals need to drop the whole crybaby BS about Trump losing the popular vote in 2016. Trump was able to win solid Democrat strongholds that haven't been up for grabs since the Reagan HW Bush era. That is just embarrassing and shows how awful of a candidate Hillary was.

Which goes right into my next point. Trump was the perfect candidate for 2016. Anti establishment(in his words) running against one of the biggest establishment politicians in decades. The people were sick of it so his rhetoric worked perfectly. By 2020 they people were largely tired of his old games and not only did he fail to keep those states he swung in 2016, but then lost leaning GOP states like Georgia and Arizona.

I agree, if he runs, and if he wins the nomination he will lose. That is if Biden is smart and steps back. I'm still not sold Biden can beat Trump again.

There are many variables though. While the economy is currently on rocky ground, will it be that way in summer 2024 leading into the election. If the economy has turned around and inflation isn't much of a worry anymore, then I do believe Biden would win. It is extremely hard to have a good economy and lose reelection.