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Oscar Pool 2016 Round 1 (the nominations - round closed)


Sorry to get this up relatively late in the game, so to speak, but welcome to the thread for Round 1 of this year's Classics Board Oscar Pool! For those of you who haven't participated before, this is your chance to win glory and, um...well, pretty much just glory...for outguessing your fellow posters in the upcoming Oscar nominations!

The rules are pretty simple - just submit your guesses for the nominations in each of the 24 competitive Oscar categories, up to the maximum number of nominees in any given category. For most categories that would be 5 nominees; the exceptions for makeup/hairstyling with 3 nominees and "best picture" with up to 10 nominees. (No player is required to submit guesses in every category, but you can't win if you don't play....)

In those categories with a variable number of nominees, players don't have to submit the maximum possible nominees. For example, if you're guessing in the "best picture" category (which may have 5 to 10 nominees), you can submit fewer than 10 nominees if you think the Academy won't nominate 10 films.

Points are awarded for correct guesses based on this formula:

(P - C) + 1

where "P" is the number of players submitting guesses in a category and "C" is the number of players who guess a given nominee correctly. The "+ 1" is there so that if all the players correctly guess a given nominee they still get a point for the guess instead of nothing.

If all but one of the players correctly guesses a nominee, then the correct players get 2 points apiece. If all but two players get a nominee right, those players get 3 points, and so on. And if only one player out of, say 12, gets a particular nominee right, that daring (and lucky) player gets 12 points!

As noted above, some categories (notably "best picture") have a variable number of possible nominees. If you submit fewer titles than the category maximum allows, then you may get points for the Academy not nominating the maximum. If a player were to guess 9 titles for "best picture", they will be counted as submitting a 10th "title" which is, effectively, "no 10th nomination". If the Academy then nominates 9 (or fewer) titles for "best picture", then "no 10th nomination" is treated as a correct guess and scored according to the formula above. The same happens for correctly "submitting" "no 9th nomination", "no 8th nomination", and so on - the operative word here being "correctly"!

It is possible to earn half-points for partially correct guesses, as with an actor being nominated for a different film than what a player guessed (e.g. Andrew Garfield for Silence instead of Hacksaw Ridge, or vice versa), or if a performance or achievement winds up in a different category than the one guessed (e.g. Viola Davis being nominated for lead actress in Fences but a player guessed supporting instead).

In the original song category, the "half-points" rule goes into effect only for players who guess two songs from a given movie (the maximum allowed by the Academy). For instance, I guess that "Song A" and "Song B" from Big Movie Musical will be nominated, and the Academy nominates "Song C" from BMM instead; I would then get half-points for that. On the other hand, if they nominate "Song C" and I only guess "Song A", then I get no points.

Categories will be scored from a player's total points for their correct guesses in the category, multiplied by the number of correct guesses in that category.

The "Latest Academy News" page at www.oscars.org/press/latest-academy-news contains links to eligible films in different categories, including "short lists" for several; you may wish to peruse these before submitting anything.

That's all for now, and I look forward to seeing your Oscar nomination guesses!

Everyone's gone to the movies, now we're alone at last....

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Picture

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Director

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

Actor

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

Actress

Amy Adams (Arrival)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)

Supporting Actress

Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Original Screenplay

Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Toni Erdmann

Adapted Screenplay

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Cinematography

Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Moonlight
Silence

Production Design

Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Passengers

Costumes

The Dressmaker
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hidden Figures
Jackie
La La Land

Film Editing

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Moonlight
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Sound Mixing

Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully

Sound Editing

Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully

Visual Effects

Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Makeup/Hairstyling

Deadpool
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek: Beyond

Original Score

Jackie
La La Land
Moana
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

Original Song

“Angel by the Wings” (The Eagle Huntress)
“City of Stars” (La La Land)
“Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street)
“How Far I'll Go” (Moana)
“I'm Still Here” (Miss Sharon Jones!)

Animated Short

Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Inner Workings
Pear Cider & Cigarettes
Piper

Live-Action Short

Bon Voyage
Graffiti
Nocturne in Black
Silent Nights
Timecode

Documentary Short

Brillo Box (3¢ Off)
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
The Mute's House
The White Helmets

Documentary Feature

The Eagle Huntress
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

Foreign Film

Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
My Life as a Zucchini
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Your Name
Zootopia

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Best Motion Picture of the Year

- Moonlight
- La La Land
- Manchester By the Sea
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Hidden Figures
- Fences
- Hell or High Water
- Lion
- Arrival

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

- Casey Affleck "Manchester By the Sea"
- Denzel Washington "Fences"
- Ryan Gosling "La La Land"
- Viggo Mortensen "Captain Fantastic"
- Joel Edgerton "Loving"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

- Emma Stone "La La Land"
- Meryl Streep "Florence Foster Jenkins"
- Natalie Portman "Jackie"
- Ruth Negga "Loving"
- Amy Adams "Arrival"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

- Mahershala Ali "Moonlight"
- Ben Foster "Hell or High Water"
- Hugh Grant "Florence Foster Jenkins"
- Dev Patel "Lion"
- Jeff Bridges "Hell or High Water"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

- Viola Davis "Fences"
- Naomie Harris "Moonlight"
- Octavia Spencer "Hidden Figures"
- Michelle Williams "Manchester By the Sea"
- Nicole Kidman "Lion"

Best Achievement in Directing

- Damien Chazelle "La La Land"
- Kenneth Lonergan "Manchester By the Sea"
- Barry Jenkins "Moonlight"
- Mel Gibson "Hacksaw Ridge"
- Denis Villeneuve "Arrival"

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

- Hell or High Water
- La La Land
- Manchester by the Sea
- The Lobster
- Zootopia

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

- Arrival
- Lion
- Moonlight
- Nocturnal Animals
- Hidden Figures

Best Achievement in Cinematography

- La La Land
- Arrival
- Silence
- Moonlight
- Lion

Best Achievement in Editing

- La La Land
- Hacksaw Ridge
- Manchester by the Sea
- Moonlight
- Arrival

Best Achievement in Production Design

- La La Land
- Hail, Caesar!
- Arrival
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
- Jackie

Best Achievement in Costume Design

- Florence Foster Jenkins
- La La Land
- Allied
- Jackie
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

- La La Land
- BFG
- Moonlight
- Jackie
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

- La La Land "“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)"
- La La Land "City of Stars"
- Moana "How Far I'll Go"
- 13th "“Letter to the Free"
- Zootopia “Try Everything”

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

- A Man Called Ove
- Florence Foster Jenkins
- Deadpool

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

- La La Land
- Hacksaw Ridge
- The Jungle Book
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
- Arrival

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

- Hacksaw Ridge
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
- Deepwater Horizon
- La La Land
- Sully

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

- Arrival
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
- The Jungle Book
- Passengers
- Doctor Strange

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

- Kubo and the Two Strings
- Moana
- Zootopia
- Miss Hokusai
- The Red Turtle

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

- My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)
- A Man Called Ove (weden)
- The Salesman (Iran)
- Toni Erdmann (Germany)
- Land of Mine (Denmark)

Best Documentary, Features

- O.J.: Made in America
- 13th
- Cameraperson
- Life, Animated
- I Am Not Your Negro

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

- Joe's Violin
- The White Helmets
- Extremis
- 4.1 Miles
- Watani: My Homeland

Best Short Film, Animated

- Piper
- Inner Workings
- Borrowed Time
- Blind Vaysha
- Pear Cider and Cigarettes

Best Short Film, Live Action

- Bon Voyage
- Timecode
- Nocturne in Black
- Silent Nights
- Sing (Mindenki)


"The trick...is not minding that it hurts."

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bump

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Sorry for stealing your guesses, Rob, but this part of the game is no fun to me at all, and I have never participated in this round, but the missing points from this round always bite me in the ass in the end (and you are the only one who posted anything so far, when more guesses come in later on maybe I will steal somebody elses instead^^).


Picture

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Director

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)

Actor

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

Actress

Amy Adams (Arrival)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

Supporting Actress

Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water
Jackie
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

Adapted Screenplay

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Cinematography

Arrival
Jackie
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
Silence

Production Design

Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hidden Figures
Nocturnal Animals
Passengers

Costumes

Allied
Doctor Strange
Hidden Figures
Jackie
Love & Friendship

Film Editing

Arrival
La La Land
Moonlight
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Silence

Sound Mixing

Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
La La Land
Moana
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Sound Editing

Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Moana
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Visual Effects

Arrival
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Passengers
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Makeup/Hairstyling

Deadpool
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek: Beyond

Original Score

Jackie
La La Land
Moana
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

Original Song

“Angel by the Wings” (The Eagle Huntress)
“City of Stars” (La La Land)
“Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street)
“How Far I'll Go” (Moana)
“I'm Still Here” (Miss Sharon Jones!)

Animated Short

Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Inner Workings
Pear Cider & Cigarettes
Piper

Live-Action Short

Bon Voyage
Graffiti
Nocturne in Black
Silent Nights
Timecode

Documentary Short

Brillo Box (3¢ Off)
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
The Mute's House
The White Helmets

Documentary Feature

The Eagle Huntress
I Am Not Your Negro
O.J.: Made in America
13th
Weiner

Foreign Film

Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
My Life as a Zucchini
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
The Red Turtle
Your Name
Zootopia

- just another film blog -
http://perception-de-ambiguity.tumblr.com

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Picture

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Director

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)

Actor

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

Actress

Amy Adams (Arrival)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)

Supporting Actress

Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Original Screenplay

Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Zootopia

Adapted Screenplay

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Cinematography

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Moonlight
Silence

Production Design

Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
La La Land
Jackie
Silence

Costumes

Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Jackie
Love & Friendship
Silence

Film Editing

Arrival
La La Land
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight
Silence

Sound Mixing

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Patriots Day
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Sound Editing

Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
Patriots Day
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Visual Effects

Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Makeup/Hairstyling

Deadpool
A Man Called Ove
The Dressmaker

Original Score

La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Original Song

"Audition" (La La Land)
"Can't Stop the Feeling" (Trolls)
"City of Stars" (La La Land)
"How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
"Runnin'" (Hidden Figures)

Animated Short

Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Happy End
Inner Workings
Piper

Live-Action Short

Bon Voyage
Nocturne in Black
Sing
Timecord
The Way of Tea

Documentary Short

The White Helmets
Joe’s Violin
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Close Ties

Documentary Feature

13th
The Eagle Huntress
Gleason
I Am Not Your Negro
O.J.: Made in America

Foreign Film

Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Courgette
The Red Turtle
Zootopia


I’ll be waiting, with a gun and a pack of sandwiches.

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I haven't seen almost all of these films, but I'll play along (copying other people's/website's stuff ;) ):

Best Picture

Arrival
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Fences
Lion
Jackie
Hell or High Water
Silence

Best Director

Damien Cazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Martin Scorsese (Silence)

Best Actor

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)

Best Actress

Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Issey Ogata (Silence)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Best Original Screenplay

Manchester by the Sea
La La Land
The Lobster
Hell or High Water
Captain Fantastic

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival
Moonlight
Lion
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge

Best Foreign Language Film

Toni Erdmann
The Salesman
My Life as a Zucchini
Land of Mine
Tanna

Best Animated Film

Finding Dory
Zootopia
Moana
Sing
Kubo and the Two Strings


Best Documentary Feature

OJ: Made in America
13th
I Am Not Your Negro
The Eagle Huntress
Gleason

Best Cinematography

Silence
La La Land
Moonlight
Arrival
Nocturnal Animals

Best Production Design

La La Land
Jackie
Silence
Arrival
Fences

Best Costumes

Jackie
Florence Foster Jenkins
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Love & Friendship
La La Land

Best Editing

Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Arrival
Hell or High Water
Silence

Best Makeup

Star Trek Beyond
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail, Caesar!

Best Sound Mixing

La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Rogue One
Sully

Best Sound Editing

Hacksaw Ridge
Arrival
Rogue One
Sully
The Jungle Book

Best Original Score

La La Land
Moonlight
Lion
Florence Foster Jenkins
Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Song

“Angel by the Wings” (The Eagle Huntress)
“City of Stars” (La La Land)
“Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street)
“How Far I'll Go” (Moana)
"The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)

Best Visual Effects

The Jungle Book
Rogue One
Arrival
The BGF
Captain America: Civil War

Best Animated Short

Piper
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Inner Workings
Happy End

Best Live Action Short

Bon Voyage
Sing (Mindenki)
Nocturne in Black
Silent Nights
Timecode

Best Documentary Short

Mad Max
Brillo Box (3¢ Off)
Joe's Violin
The Mute's House
The White Helmets

IT iS A GiANT CREEPY FiSH HEAD THiNG!

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Oddly enough, anticipating the nomination announcement (and kvelling/bitching about the nominations afterward) is my favorite part of the Oscars! I guess I like the variety of options presented, and especially enjoy trying to catch potential outliers, stuff that "couldn't possibly be nominated" but is nominated anyway. (To be sure, some categories are as predictable as the rising sun.) It would be overstating to say the actual awards are an anticlimax for me, but I'm not quite as interested. As I see it, the Academy has their favorite films and I have mine, and I'm cool with that.

I'm also OK with your copying my guesses for the time being, but you should understand that I tend to be prone to wishful thinking (or sometimes cynical thinking, as when I'm sure a film I like won't be nominated and then it is) and eccentric theorizing (which sometimes pays off and sometimes doesn't). I'd rather not give specific examples because I don't want to skew the results, but you can probably find a few examples of each on my ballot this year. (Also, I just changed a nominee apiece in three categories, heh heh heh....)

"Everyone's gone to the movies, now we're alone at last....";

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Your wishful thinking and all that is fine by me (I usually have the same notion influence some of my own choices when it comes to Round 2, as do probably most players to one degree or another), I'm not looking to win Round 1, which I think would be kind of a contemptible intention for somebody who doesn't want to put any effort into this round, I just want some basic points so that theoretically I at least have a chance to win. From what I remember from previous years there are a lot less points to get during Round 1 (approximately half?), so doing great during Round 1 doesn't mean very much, but not participating in it at all obviously is a pretty big disadvantage.

I'm glad that you are cool with my copying your guesses (although like I said, maybe I'll end up copying somebody elses), of course I could cover it up by basically copying somebody's list and making some changes to it, probably nobody would guess that it's mostly a copy, but this would miss the point for me, which is to just not put any effort into it. This still doesn't exactly make it an honorable thing to do, but at least I'm being honest about it, right?

- just another film blog -
http://perception-de-ambiguity.tumblr.com

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